Last week, following reports that as part of its countersanctions, the Russian central bank had banned payments to foreign owners of ruble bonds known as OFZ, we said that it was now just a matter of days if not hours, before Russia was in technical default (similar to what happened in 1998 when a Russian default led to the collapse of a little-known hedge fund known LTCM, which was bailed out and ushered in today's era of moral hazard).

When the US and EU trotted out the SWIFT sanction card, I thought I got that one wrong. Closer inspection by Eurointelligence and others shows it's Not So Swift After All.

The US has joined Canada, the EU and UK in barring some Russians from the international money transfer system, SWIFT. The move is the most serious round of sanctions yet from Western nations over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, with Ross Delston, a U.S. lawyer and former banking regulator, calling it “the closest thing to a declaration of war from a financial perspective.”