How Many People in NYC Are At Risk of Losing Their Job Over the Mayor's Vaccine Mandate?

Estimated Percent and Numbers

At most, about 9% of the city and 18% of the workers are impacted. The count is less because only 10.8% are not vaccinated at all. That's still a lot of people though. 

Let's crunch some numbers at various compliance rates using 4,226,300 as the current number of employees and 18% as the maximum percentage of unvaccinated. 

  • No Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 4,226,300 = 760,734
  • Assuming 25% Additional  Compliance: 0.18 * 0.75 * 4,226,300 = 570,551
  • Assuming 50% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.50 * 4,226,300 = 380,367
  • Assuming 75% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.25 * 4,226,300 = 190,184
  • Assuming 90% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.10 * 4,226,300 = 76,073

Some number of people will refuse vaccinations. I suspect between 150,000 and 450,000 people will lose their job over the mandate. To pick a number, call it 250,000. 

Percentagewise, 250,000 / 4,226,300 * 100 is 5.9%. And the number could be much higher if I overestimate compliance.